You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are. Some areas are still seeing price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation?
It All Comes Down to Inventory
Here’s the simple version:
- When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.
- More options, means less competition
- Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high
On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up. That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country.
Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise.
The Maps Say It All
Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019 . In most places, inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.
But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots. According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin.
Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year. See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?
The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect.
The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
If you’re a buyer, the market you are shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you are still likely facing a lot competition.
If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where I can advise you.
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